Rain, Heat Coming Back in Week Ahead

Temperatures will creep back up and some humidity will sneak back in this week as a reminder summer is still with us.

Forecasters say we’ll see afternoon temperatures go back into the low or even middle 90s around Land O’ Lakes and high 80s in New Port Richey.

But the pounding, oppressive days when it felt like 105 or higher outside are past. Heat index values should stay below 100, though they’ll come close to the triple-digit mark.

Rain chances will inch back up and even morning low temperatures that fell into the 60s last week already have returned to the 70s.

By the middle of the week, the National Weather Service says mornings along the coast in New Port Richey could only fall to the middle 70s as warm moist air moves over the state.

Around Land O’ Lakes and away from the coast, the mornings may be a few degrees cooler, but forget the 60s for a while.

Around the middle of the week, an area of low pressure moving from the Mississippi Valley is expected to reach the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and more or less stop.

That means air will flow over us from the south or southwest and bring plenty of humidity and higher temperatures than everyone was seeing a week earlier.

Afternoons should be a couple degrees warmer than normal for this time in September when the typical high is 89.

The week begins Monday with slightly higher rain chances from Pasco County south as moist air begins to build but not enough, even by Tuesday, to create a huge chance for rain.

In fact, if heavy clouds that some models predict appear, rain chances could drop below the 30 percent forecasters are expecting on Tuesday.

Rain chances go up on Wednesday as the low pressure over the Gulf brings plenty of moisture and lift to the atmosphere and rain chances go up through Thursday.

Forecasters say there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out up to 2 inches of rain each day as sea breezes collide. That doesn’t mean 2 inches of rain will fall, but moisture won’t be a limiting factor for rainfall.

The peninsula will be sandwiched between low pressure over the Gulf and high pressure in the Atlantic that will combine to bring back humidity to summertime levels.

After a lull, the tropics are becoming more active, though none of the tropical waves watched by the National Hurricane Center are going to cause much trouble in the short-term and may not in the long-term.

Forecasters at the center give none of the waves they’re watching a huge chance to develop, and only one that is about 1,200 miles east of the Caribbean Sea has even a small potential to grow into a storm.

There still are a couple weeks left in the peak time for hurricanes. In late September, storm formation is about evenly divided between the tropical Atlantic and western Caribbean where things are currently quiet.

By early October, the Caribbean becomes the prime birthplace for storms and the Atlantic begins to calm.