Wave Brings Added Tropical Rain To Summertime Mix

Folks in western and central Pasco along with most of peninsular Florida will get a taste of tropical weather through Friday as a tropical wave drags a heavy dose of moisture over the state.

Most of the tropical wave, an area of low pressure that creates rain and thunderstorms, moved off the state by Thursday but its cargo of sodden air will take time to clear.

“It’s at least 24 to 36 hours for it to move away, along with all the moisture that’s associated with it,” said Anthony Reynes, National Weather Service meteorologist in Ruskin.

That means rain should be around most of Friday and into the night, forecasters say.

The rain Friday won’t be the typical summer variety that sparks up in the afternoons, Reynes said. It will be more tropical in nature with cloudy skies through the day that will keep temperatures down slightly.

Though the wave isn’t expected to generate much in the way of severe thunderstorms, there could be 2 or 3 inches of rain in places.

A few of the storms could create some gusty winds.

“The biggest concern is local flooding,” Reynes said.

Forecasters put the rain chances for Friday in the 70 percent range.

Some of the moisture will have moved away by Saturday but enough will hang around to create rain chances of about 50 percent. It will likely be the afternoon before storms start to show up, the weather service says.

By Sunday, the tropical system will have moved well into the Gulf of Mexico along with the moisture the wave towed behind.

Sunday should return to the type of summer afternoon most of us are used to seeing in early July with the typical 40 percent chance for rain when sea breezes from both coasts collide.

The storms should pile up in the afternoon and move inland, Reynes said.

Along with usual summer afternoon rain, temperatures on Sunday should return closer to normal.

Right now, there is a small chance for the tropical wave to grow into the season’s next storm or at least tropical depression by the weekend.

The wave is one of two the National Hurricane Center is watching, though forecasters give both a chance of 20 percent or less to develop in the coming couple days.

The other wave is tucked near the coast of South America about 500 miles east of the Caribbean Sea. The hurricane center says it has only about a 10 percent chance to develop.

The wave that brought Florida its soaking has a 20 percent chance to become a storm or depression.

Most of the forecast models show it moving north in the Gulf toward the Panhandle.

A few of the intensity models predict the wave will become a tropical storm by the weekend, though any models that do also show it dropping quickly in strength by the end of the weekend or the start of the week.